Climate Mobility Policy Responses for National Security Advisors

This is the first a five part series of ministry-focused briefs setting out rights-based, country-agnostic recommendations on climate mobility that governments can act on now.  To view the rest of the briefs, visit the overview.

WHY RESPOND TO CLIMATE MOBILITY?

Migration caused by climate events is not itself a security threat.  The primary threat is the unmanaged systems stress that climate mobility can contribute to, such as downward spirals of instability, additional strain on institutions, increasing tensions in receiving communities, creating competition over increasingly scarce resources, and creating opportunities for organised criminal and extremist groups to exploit irregular migration flows for profit, recruitment and corruption.  These risks can be managed if security actors integrate climate mobility into their intelligence gathering, foresight analysis, preparedness and international cooperation efforts in a bounded and strategic manner. National security advisors should adopt a human security perspective in responding to climate mobility, prioritising the protection and safeguarding the wellbeing of impacted individuals and communities.  For this reason, the default leads on climate mobility policy should be diplomatic and development actors.

WHY ACT NOW?

Security actors will have to engage with the consequences that climate events are causing to human mobility. Designing the sector’s intervention through proactive policies ensures interventions have a durable, strategic and rights-based impact, rather than simply reacting to crises that they had the tools to prevent.  There is a substantive role for security actors to play in addressing this challenge in a rights-based manner, by bringing in capabilities and resources that other actors lack.  For example, many of the intelligence, mapping, risk analyses and other infrastructure necessary to meaningfully address climate mobility, lies solely within the purview of security actors.  The security sector’s role and remit, if included, can ensure a better response to the cascading impacts of environmental changes.  Moreover, security budgets are rising whilst development and climate finance budgets are increasingly limited.  Involving security actors in the response to climate mobility brings in tools, access and resources that are otherwise lacking.

KEY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS:

National security advisors should focus on four key areas:

1. ESTABLISH CLIMATE MOBILITY AS A GOVERNANCE PRIORITY:  Establish a permanent inter-agency coordinating mechanism on climate mobility to coordinate foreign policy, security and humanitarian agendas, retain the issue as a sustained policy priority and ensure it is treated as a structural security challenge rather than a one-off topic.  This also allows for more effective and bounded civilian-military operations, with roles and responsibilities clearly outlined from the outset, and the deployment of both hard and soft assets from multiple ministerial verticals.  Legislative and budgetary oversight should be established at the outset to ensure civilian oversight for security interventions on climate mobility.

2. INCORPORATE CLIMATE MOBILITY INTO ALL INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS AND FORESIGHT ANALYSIS:

• Require climate mobility risk assessments across all relevant intelligence, foresight analysis and contingency planning. Climate mobility analysis should be integrated into existing country-level, and regional intelligence assessments.
• New comprehensive assessments of the most climate vulnerable regions should be developed on accelerated timelines, to reflect broader geostrategic priorities.
• Partnerships should be forged with academic and think tank researchers to bring in additional scientific and policy making expertise, to improve the quality of climate mobility security analysis.

3. CLIMATE-PROOF INTERVENTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE:

• Pre-position disaster response assets and logistical infrastructure in climate vulnerable regions and climate-proof critical infrastructure to withstand severe weather impacts.
• Include climate vulnerability assessments in analysis informing base-siting and force posture decisions, and share this data with local communities beyond the fenceline to inform and improve local resilience.

4. STRENGTHEN LOCAL CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE MOBILITY:

• Security actors have existing mandates in fragile and conflict environments where upstream adaptation investments can be made to reduce the risk of climate displacement.
• Collaborate with development actors to increase partner Government prioritization of addressing climate mobility.
• Integrate climate mobility into military training and assistance programmes.
• Use existing defence cooperation agreements to create channels for climate-related information sharing and joint planning with partner militaries.
• Advocate for climate adaptation to be on the agendas of strategic bilateral and multilateral security relationships such as the annual Shangri-La dialogue, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance meetings, the G7 and G20 and bilateral security dialogues.

IMMEDIATE NEXT STEPS:

• Commission a climate mobility security assessment for regions of geostrategic relevance.
• Integrate climate mobility indicators into existing intelligence and early-warning systems.
• Identify climate vulnerable regions of geostrategic priority where anticipatory investment could reduce future instability and insecurity.
• Prioritise climate mobility on the agenda of relevant bilateral and multilateral security dialogues.